Archive for December 2013
In this post I present an update to my previous posts over at The Oil Drum (The Red Queen series) on developments in tight oil production from the Bakken formation in North Dakota with some additional estimates, mainly presented in charts. The expansion is much about the differences between wells capable of producing, actual producing wells and idle wells (here defined as the difference between the number of wells capable of producing and the number of actual producing wells).
There is still noticeable growth in tight oil production from an accelerated additions of producing wells.
- For October 2013 North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) reported a production of 877 kb/d from Bakken/Three Forks.
- In October 2013YTD production from Bakken/Three Forks (ND) was 775 kb/d.
(It is now expected that average daily production for all 2013 from Bakken (ND) will become around 800 kb/d.
- The cash flow analysis now suggests less use of debt for manufacturing wells for 2013.
Major funding for new wells now appears to come mainly from from net cash flows.
kb; kilo barrels = 1,000 barrels
In this post I present some hard data from the Norwegian economy, which in the recent decades show high correlations between total debt growth and the oil price. Presently the total debt growth from some sectors runs at an annual rate above 8% of GDP.
I also present my thoughts and observations about historical developments and what may lie ahead.
The economic undertows now suggest for a sharp downturn in the Norwegian economy. A deep look into the public data from Statistics Norway (SSB) reveals that it was the growth in debt, primarily acquired by the Norwegian households, that was and still continues to be a major and less acknowledged contributor to the recent growth success of the Norwegian economy.
The primer for the strong nominal growth in debt was likely the growth in the oil price starting back in 2004. The oil price has remained at a structurally higher level at around $100/bbl.
Developments in the Norwegian economy have been tightly linked to movements of the oil price and the value of petroleum exports.
- It is widely recognized that the growth in the oil price spurred more investments for exploration and developments for petroleum from the North Sea.
- With the increased Norwegian North Sea petroleum activities followed an acceleration in households, non financial and municipalities debt growth.
As the data on imports are not broken down by sectors, there is good reason to believe that a major portion of the import growth originates from purchases of goods and services for the petroleum industry.
The value of Norwegian petroleum exports is now expected to decline in the near term with the decline in production, primarily of crude oil and by the end of this decade also natural gas.
Anyhow the data were whipped around for confessions, it turned out the Norwegian economy now appear to approach a major turn around.