FRACTIONAL FLOW

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Archive for April 2014

NORWEGIAN CRUDE OIL RESERVES AND PRODUCTION PER 2013

In this post I present actual Norwegian crude oil production and status on the development in discoveries and reserves and what this has now resulted in for expectations for future Norwegian crude oil production.

This post is also an update of an earlier post about Norwegian crude oil reserves and production per 2012 (in Norwegian).

Norwegian crude oil production peaked in 2001 at 3.12 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) and by 2013 it had declined by more than 50% to 1.46 Mb/d. This has been overshadowed by the fact that the price has increased 4 fold from the level from 2001, which thus and in financial terms more than compensated for the fall in physical extraction.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) recent forecast expects crude oil production from  the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) will become around 1.47 Mb/d in 2014.

Figure 1: The chart shows the historical production (or more precisely extraction) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) for the years 1970 - 2013. The chart also includes a forecast for crude oil production from discoveries/fields towards 2040 based on reviews on individual fields, NPD’s estimates of remaining recoverable reserves, the development/forecast for the R/P ratio etc. as of end 2013. Further, the chart shows a forecast for total crude oil production from sanctioned discoveries/fields (green area, refer also Figure 2) and expected contribution from Johan Sverdrup (blue area) [at end 2013 estimated at 2.23 Gb; [Gb, Giga  barrels, refer also figure 3]  which is now scheduled to start flowing late 2019. "Sanctioned Developments" in Figure 1 represents the total contributions from 13 sanctioned developments of discoveries now scheduled to start to flow between 2014 and 2017.

Figure 1: The chart shows the historical production (or more precisely extraction) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) for the years 1970 – 2013. The chart also includes a forecast for crude oil production from discoveries/fields towards 2040 based on reviews on individual fields, NPD’s estimates of remaining recoverable reserves, the development/forecast for the R/P ratio etc. as of end 2013.
Further, the chart shows a forecast for total crude oil production from sanctioned discoveries/fields (green area, refer also Figure 2) and expected contribution from Johan Sverdrup (blue area) [at end 2013 estimated at 2.23 Gb; [Gb, Giga barrels, refer also figure 3] which is now scheduled to start flowing late 2019.
“Sanctioned Developments” in Figure 1 represents the total contributions from 13 sanctioned developments of discoveries now scheduled to start to flow between 2014 and 2017.

My forecast for 2014 is for 1.44 Mb/d crude oil from the NCS.

My forecast assumes some reserve growth, but does not include the effects from fields/discoveries being plugged and abandoned as these reach the end of their economic life.

Discoveries sanctioned for development and Johan Sverdrup (with an expected start up late 2019) is expected to slow down the overall decline in Norwegian crude oil production.

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