Archive for April 2014
In this post I present actual Norwegian crude oil production and status on the development in discoveries and reserves and what this has now resulted in for expectations for future Norwegian crude oil production.
This post is also an update of an earlier post about Norwegian crude oil reserves and production per 2012 (in Norwegian).
Norwegian crude oil production peaked in 2001 at 3.12 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) and by 2013 it had declined by more than 50% to 1.46 Mb/d. This has been overshadowed by the fact that the price has increased 4 fold from the level from 2001, which thus and in financial terms more than compensated for the fall in physical extraction.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) recent forecast expects crude oil production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) will become around 1.47 Mb/d in 2014.My forecast for 2014 is for 1.44 Mb/d crude oil from the NCS.
My forecast assumes some reserve growth, but does not include the effects from fields/discoveries being plugged and abandoned as these reach the end of their economic life.
Discoveries sanctioned for development and Johan Sverdrup (with an expected start up late 2019) is expected to slow down the overall decline in Norwegian crude oil production.