Archive for February 2015
What follows are the continuance of my research, discussions, observations and thoughts around the nexus of debts, interest rates and the oil price.
I now believe these relations are poorly understood and with total global debt levels at all time highs (and growing), years of low interest rates, which are kept low (by concerted efforts by central banks) while the oil price in recent months has collapsed may hide a SIGNAL that struggles with attention from too much noise.
- A collapsing oil price while interest rates remain low is likely the proverbial canary.
Global Crude Oil Supplies, The Oil Price And Interest RatesCause and effects amongst the oil price and interest rates are of course subject to (some informed and gripping) discussions.
- The price of oil appears to have been the leading indicator.
- Any (small) increase to the interest rate now will likely affect demand for oil and thus its price, thus further slowing investments for new supplies.