Archive for September 2016
In this post I present actual Norwegian natural gas production, status on reserves, the development in discoveries and what this results for Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) and my expectations for the future delivery potential for Norwegian natural gas.
Norway, after Russia, has been and is the EU’s second biggest supplier of natural gas.
Norway is the third largest gas exporter in the world. In 2015, Norway exported about 114 Gcm (Bcm) gas, mainly to other countries in Europe.
Included is also a brief look at developments in actual consumption and production of natural gas in the 28 members of the European Union (the EU 28).
- NPD in their most recent forecast further revised down and narrowed their band for future delivery potential with about 10 Gcm/a (Bcm/a) by 2025 and pushed forward the start of decline one year relative to their previous forecast.
- I now expect the Norwegian delivery potential for natural gas relative to 2015 to decline by more than 40% by 2025.
- Europe will increasingly have to rely on natural gas imports from more distant sources and should by now have defined policies for the role natural gas will have in its future energy mix.
This post is an update to my post in 2015 looking at the status as of end 2014.
My forecast and NPD’s forecast at end 2015 are basically identical towards the end of this decade, but differs about the timing for the start of the decline and how steep this will become as from early next decade. My forecast is also tested versus the Reserves over Production (R/P) ratio as of end 2015, refer also figure 2.