Archive for the ‘Valhall’ Category
In this post I present actual Norwegian crude oil extraction and status on the development in discoveries and reserves and what this has now resulted in for expectations for future Norwegian crude oil extraction.
This post is also an update of an earlier post about Norwegian crude oil reserves and production per 2013.
Norwegian crude oil extraction peaked in 2001 at 3.12 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) and in 2014 it was 1.52 Mb/d.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) recent forecast expects crude oil extraction from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) will become around 1.49 Mb/d in 2015.“Sanctioned Developments” in Figure 01 represents the total contributions from 8 sanctioned developments of discoveries now scheduled to start to flow between 2015 and 2017.
My forecast for 2015 is 1.47 Mb/d with crude oil from the NCS.
My forecast shown in figure 01 includes all sanctioned developments and not discoveries (refer also figure 07) and contingent resources in the fields. The forecast is subject to revisions as the reserve base becomes revised (as discoveries pass the commercial hurdles) which likely will fatten the tail post 2020 of the presented forecast.
My forecast assumes some reserve growth, but does not include the effects from fields/discoveries being plugged and abandoned as these reach the end of their economic life.
Discoveries sanctioned for development and Johan Sverdrup (with an expected start up late 2019) is expected to slow down the decline in Norwegian crude oil extraction.
This post is a status update on crude oil extracted from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and presents the developments of some selected discoveries long in the tooth and some more recent developments.
I presented my 2014 crude oil forecast towards 2040 in Norwegian Crude Oil Reserves and Production per 2013 in April 2014.
Norwegian crude oil extraction, now shows a small uptick. Looking further into the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) data it turns out this temporary growth in extraction originates from discoveries that started to flow prior to 2002, refer also figures 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.
Some of the discoveries brought to flow since 2002 have performed below expectations since these were sanctioned, some of which were described in A closer Look at some recent Developments Offshore Norway.
As of August 2014 NCS crude oil extraction is around 20 kb/d (1%) above all of 2013.
(kb; kilo barrels, 1,000 barrels)
A closer look into the NPD estimates of reserves (EUR) and monthly actual extraction numbers shows that some of the recent developments have or had a high depletion rate, which raises expectations for a near future steep decline in their crude oil extraction rate.
There has been a small and expected temporary growth in crude oil extraction so far in 2014 relative to all of 2013. Two sources were found to contribute to this:
- Higher depletion (extraction) rates from some of the recent developments than what could be expected from NPD’s estimates on ultimate recovery (EUR) as of end 2013.
- Some of the developments long in the tooth has temporary reversed their decline and demonstrated some growth, which is believed to be due to the deployment of various drainage/technological strategies made possible by the high oil price.
Some typical characteristics for discoveries in the extraction phase;
- As the reservoirs becomes 50 – 60% depleted, the extraction rate (flow) starts to decline.
- A high depletion rate (higher extraction [production]) depletes the reservoir faster, which normally results in steeper declines.