FRACTIONAL FLOW

Fractional flow, the flow that shapes our future.

ABOUT FRACTIONAL FLOW, CONTACT, LINKING, COPYRIGHTS

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A little about me that post on “FRACTIONAL FLOW”

NAME: Rune Likvern

                                        

AGE: Grown up

SHORT BIO

Holds an MSc from Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 1980, Marine Technology.

20 years of experiences from several international oil companies, primarily Statoil inclusive management and encompassing major process components, site supervision, field developments, area studies, exploration economics, value chain analyses, technical and commercial responsibilities for natural gas logistics related to Troll Gas Sales Agreements (TGSA).

This was followed by independent consultancy involving establishment of databases for profitability/cash flow analysis, development of production forecasts, portfolio evaluations for oil/gas fields on the Norwegian sector of the North Sea. Gradually increased focus on global energy (primarily oil and natural gas) supply/demand analysis.

Had a sabbatical from 2007 to join full time informal studies and group discussions to improve insights, understandings and interrelations of resources in general and energy in particular, society, macroeconomics, politics, biology/psychology/sociology.

Became formally a staff member of the widely acknowledged energy blog The Oil Drum as from 2008 where some of my work can be found.

2009/2010 VP (oil/gas demand, trend analytics) for a New York based energy hedge fund.

Have amongst other tasks also carried out profitability analysis for several US shale gas projects like Haynesville and Horn River feeding LNG plants.

Post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and in cooperation with other acknowledged experts focused on the interrelations of debt, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and energy and themes like energy companies, prospects for production changes, cash flows, debt and debt carrying capacities.

Debts/credits have for decades played and will continue to play a major part in the near future and will thus also affect future energy supply/demand issues.

In the fall of 2010 several of the group members had started to see the outlines of what we internally and informally referred to as …”The End Game”.

I am presently looking for gainful opportunities. I am ready to undertake research, studies, analysis, presentations, participate in projects and other in accordance with prior agreements. The blog hopefully presents some of the areas of expertise.

(I am mobile according to prior agreement.)

CONTACT  [Email address]

Spam protected email address: rune [dot] likvern [at] gmail [dot] com

(Written continuous and inclusive of signs as shown.)

USE OF MATERIAL FROM FRACTIONAL FLOW, LINKING AND COPYRIGHT

It is of course a gesture of acknowledgment if content from FRACTIONAL FLOW are used for other discussions in cyberspace, which is one of the purposes of making the blog public.

Complete repost of any posts on FRACTIONAL FLOW is NOT ALLOWED without prior agreement in writing.

However any use of material from the posts written and/or charts for further discussions shall be given proper attribution to its author with a link to the original post and/or blog.

For any that wishes to use any material from FRACTIONAL FLOW involving any commercial activities, shall be subject to a prior written agreement.

WHY ”FRACTIONAL FLOW”?

Throughout the years and in several professional discussions/studies involving conventional oil reservoirs, it became clear that one of the world’s foremost experts in these discussions used the nick name Fractional Flow. Fractional flow as a reservoir phenomenon have great influence on oil reservoir behavior/productivity as the reservoir approaches depletion.

The chart at the left shows the principle of “fractional flow” by a simplified schematic. With increased water saturation in the reservoir there will be a point where only water is mobile and an (watered) oil well becomes a water well.

The term “fractional flow” may also aptly describe what happens within an economy if credit dries up and delays transactions or make these come to a halt.

Credit acts very much like a lubricant that makes an engine run.

For all content in this blog.

Rune Likvern © 2011-2017 All Rights Reserved.

Written by Rune Likvern

Wednesday, 23 November, 2011 at 19:47

10 Responses

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  1. Fantastisk bra blogg/nettsted ! Jeg har jobbet innen feltutvikling siden 30 år, og har i flere år prøvd å overbevise mine kollegaer om at Peakoil er virkelighet og ikke en “teori”. Den fine grafikken og argumentasjonen din har vært overbevisende for noen. Men det fleste vil bare ikke bli overbesvist…… så man tror det ikke selv når man har sett det ! Kan jeg spre dine grafer til venner og kollegaer ? selvsagt med kilde-anvisning og lenke til Fractional Flow ! /mvh Lennart Claesson, Petroleumingeniør og geoviter

    Lennart Claesson

    Tuesday, 29 January, 2013 at 17:29

  2. veldig bra blogg… 🙂

    jan erik

    Thursday, 11 April, 2013 at 13:22

  3. Nå når “The Oil Drum” stilner av, er det godt at det finnes et faglig fundert nettsted å sjekke, for det her med peak oil er ikke noe som slutter av seg sjøl. Har regelmessig følgt med “oljekrisa.no”, men den holder åpenbart stadig ferilukka.

    Tor

    Sunday, 18 August, 2013 at 19:18

  4. Du har en meget interessant blogg, med velbegrunnede og informative innlegg.

    Boom Bust

    Friday, 11 October, 2013 at 20:58

  5. Hei! Sliter med engelsken min! Hvor ble det av den norske utgaven?

    Tore

    Saturday, 25 January, 2014 at 18:59

  6. Hi Rune,

    Just read IN BAKKEN (ND) IT IS NOW MOSTLY ABOUT MCKENZIE COUNTY but missed the comment period. Thank you for the fine update. Will your efforts on the Bakken be ongoing?

    Luke H

    Luke H

    Thursday, 6 February, 2014 at 23:35

  7. […] Noorse oliedeskundige Rune Likvern schreef de afgelopen jaren voor TheOildrum.com. Tegenwoordig schrijft hij op een eigen weblog […]

  8. Dear Rune Likvern,

    I very often follow discussions on peak oil items and in my opinion I think that something is quite slowly by steadily going terribly wrong. How much oil is left and is it easy to get out of the ground … a lot of confusion.
    I would be very glad if you and other persons interested in this theme would consider the following theory and DISCUSS it with me:

    In most part of mankind’s existence we were totally dependent on the fruits of Nature which I consider to be an Energy System which keeps us all alive . With the evolution of Agriculture this did not change very much. But there was a very important difference: We could accumulate food and other products from Agriculture which I consider to be an Energy System derived from Nature – I would call this ‘secondary’ energy system Energy System Agriculture. The start of Agriculture – I think – was a long journey with error and trials and ups and downs. However, as time passed Agriculture gave us a broad variety of many different goods. And now not all people had to toil in the fields. Some people were (partly) released to do other things – to specialize. But one thing was certain: They were all totally dependent on what Agriculture gave them. Wheat, cotton, meat – you mention it – all originated from Energy System Nature + Agriculture. I imagine that in the very beginning of Agriculture those people thus released from working in the fields were paid with the products of Agriculture and barter was the predominant way of exchanging goods and work – I must underline that payment must have been in form of goods from Nature and especially Agriculture. And this form of payment persisted in thousands of years (taxes and tithe) but gradually the supply og different articles got so immense that you had to ‘invent’ a measure of different products. This invention/development/evolution was money. In that time people would know that you could for instance exchange 20 kg of wheat for one goat or 2 kg of cotton + 6 kg of rice for a week’s work digging a new well (or something like that). Therefore money must have represented a measure of the energy of that time as all goods came from the Energy Systems Agriculture + Nature. The use of fossils (in machines) did not change that: The machines could produce articles in much bigger quantities but still – every article came out with a price tag on it that was nothing else than a measure of the activated energy in Energy System Fossils. With your salary you could buy articles but all articles had their origin in energy systems: Energy System Nature + Agriculture + Fossils.
    Money is nothing but at measure of energy! The world production of oil goes up (and it apparently does) but still it seems that there is an energy problem. I see it in the following manner: If you have to spend more money to get the oil out of the ground then read it as follows: You have to spend more energy to get the oil out of the ground. That extra money/energy must be taken from the world community and the effect is in fact less energy although the production is rising. We therefore have to distinguish between net energy production and gross energy production where the net energy of course is what really matters. With less net energy at our disposal the world energy will shrink – in the last approximately 150 years the net energy at our disposal grew (and you could borrow money being sure that the net energy, i.e. amount of money, would expand in future (inflation) – but now it is all different – net energy shrinks and so does the amount of money at your disposal (deflation).

    Niels Colding

    Niels Colding

    Saturday, 10 January, 2015 at 13:43

    • Hello Niels,

      Thanks! (I deleted the double post, and sorry for the belated response.)
      Every transaction we are involved in also involves energy and money acts also as a proxy for this energy. The amount, of course, varies with what the transaction involves. Energy cannot be seen with the bare eye, we can only observe its effects.

      Dr. Nate Hagens (ref link below to one of his recent presentations/speeches which I consider to be an excellent primer in presenting the differences between real capital [natural, built, human and social] and financial) has made a strong argument that money is a claim on energy.
      The Converging Energy and Environmental Crises – A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention
      (Dr. Nate Hagens)

      Net energy available for our societies is what matters. On average around 85% of our energy consumption derives from fossil sunlight/fuels. The Indutrial Revolution was in reality a Fossil Fuel (FF) Revolution as it marked the start of using increasing amounts of (cheap) FF to do work.

      To me we are presently witnessing something that should be the proverbial canary.
      The low interest rate, like the 10 Year US Treasury, which now is below 2%, and the recent collapse in the oil price should get more attention about the structural causes for these things. This has never coincided before in modern history.
      Oil sands, shale oil, Arctic, deepwater oil are all expensive sources of oil (and gas). This should also be a signal about what is going on with our energy supply systems.
      To me we are presently at crossroads with what price the oil companies need to make a return (profit) and what the consumers can afford.

      Rune Likvern

      Saturday, 10 January, 2015 at 20:49


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