FRACTIONAL FLOW

Fractional flow, the flow that shapes our future.

Posts Tagged ‘Volve

Norwegian Crude Oil Reserves And Extraction per 2014

In this post I present actual Norwegian crude oil extraction and status on the development in discoveries and reserves and what this has now resulted in for expectations for future Norwegian crude oil extraction.

This post is also an update of an earlier post about Norwegian crude oil reserves and production per 2013.

Norwegian crude oil extraction peaked in 2001 at 3.12 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) and in 2014 it was 1.52 Mb/d.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) recent forecast expects crude oil extraction from  the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) will become around 1.49 Mb/d in 2015.

Figure 01: The chart shows the historical extraction (production) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) for the years 1970 - 2014. The chart also includes a forecast for crude oil extraction from discoveries/fields towards 2040 based on reviews on individual fields, NPD’s estimates of remaining recoverable reserves, the development/forecast for the R/P ratio etc. as of end 2014. Further, the chart shows a forecast for total crude oil extraction from sanctioned discoveries/fields (green area, refer also figure 02) and expected contribution from Johan Sverdrup (blue area) [at end 2014 estimated at 2.22 Gb; [Gb, Giga  (Billion) barrels, refer also figure 05]  which is now scheduled to start flowing in late 2019.

Figure 01: The chart shows the historical extraction (production) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) for the years 1970 – 2014. The chart also includes a forecast for crude oil extraction from discoveries/fields towards 2040 based on reviews on individual fields, NPD’s estimates of remaining recoverable reserves, the development/forecast for the R/P ratio etc. as of end 2014.
Further, the chart shows a forecast for total crude oil extraction from sanctioned discoveries/fields (green area, refer also figure 02) and expected contribution from Johan Sverdrup (blue area) [at end 2014 estimated at 2.22 Gb; [Gb, Giga (Billion) barrels, refer also figure 05] which is now scheduled to start flowing in late 2019.

“Sanctioned Developments” in Figure 01 represents the total contributions from 8 sanctioned developments of discoveries now scheduled to start to flow between 2015 and 2017.

My forecast for 2015 is 1.47 Mb/d with crude oil from the NCS.

My forecast shown in figure 01 includes all sanctioned developments and not discoveries (refer also figure 07) and contingent resources in the fields. The forecast is subject to revisions as the reserve base becomes revised (as discoveries pass the commercial hurdles) which likely will fatten the tail post 2020 of the presented forecast.

My forecast assumes some reserve growth, but does not include the effects from fields/discoveries being plugged and abandoned as these reach the end of their economic life.

Discoveries sanctioned for development and Johan Sverdrup (with an expected start up late 2019) is expected to slow down the decline in Norwegian crude oil extraction.

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Norwegian Crude Oil Extraction, Fall 2014 Status

This post is a status update on crude oil extracted from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and presents the developments of some selected discoveries long in the tooth and some more recent developments.

I presented my 2014 crude oil forecast towards 2040 in Norwegian Crude Oil Reserves and Production per 2013 in April 2014.

Norwegian crude oil extraction, now shows a small uptick. Looking further into the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) data it turns out this temporary growth in extraction originates from discoveries that started to flow prior to 2002, refer also figures 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.

Some of the discoveries brought to flow since 2002 have performed below expectations since these were sanctioned, some of which were described in A closer Look at some recent Developments Offshore Norway.

Figure 01: The columns show NCS crude oil extraction by month for 2012 (grey), 2013 (red)  and for 2014 (blue) as of August (preliminary NPD figures).

Figure 01: The columns show NCS crude oil extraction by month for 2012 (grey), 2013 (red) and for 2014 (blue) as of August (preliminary NPD figures).

As of August 2014 NCS crude oil extraction is around 20 kb/d (1%) above all of 2013.

(kb; kilo barrels, 1,000 barrels)

A closer look into the NPD estimates of reserves (EUR) and monthly actual extraction numbers shows that some of the recent developments have or had a high depletion rate, which raises expectations for a near future steep decline in their crude oil extraction rate.

There has been a small and expected temporary growth in crude oil extraction so far in 2014 relative to all of 2013. Two sources were found to contribute to this:

  • Higher depletion (extraction) rates from some of the recent developments than what could be expected from NPD’s estimates on ultimate recovery (EUR) as of end 2013.
  • Some of the developments long in the tooth has temporary reversed their decline and demonstrated some growth, which is believed to be due to the deployment of various drainage/technological strategies made possible by the high oil price.

Some typical characteristics for discoveries in the extraction phase;

  • As the reservoirs becomes 50 – 60% depleted, the extraction rate (flow) starts to decline.
  • A high depletion rate (higher extraction [production]) depletes the reservoir faster, which normally results in steeper declines.

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NOE MER DETALJERT OM FALLRATER, PRIMÆRT FOR NORSK SOKKEL

I løpet av 2011 opplevde råoljeutvinningen på britisk sektor noe som ble beskrevet som en kollaps. Råoljeutvinningen i 2011 falt med 18 % relativt til 2010.

I dette innlegget presenterer jeg utviklingen i råoljeutvinningen og fallratene for britisk og dansk sektor. Norsk sektor tilhører det samme petroleumsbassenget noe som nå gir grunn til å vente tilsvarende utvikling for norsk sektor.

Innlegget kan oppfattes å være noe ”teknisk”, men for de som leser og studerer de vedlagte diagrammene så vil det forhåpentligvis gi noe innsikt i nytten av å forstå fallrater.

Figur 01: Figuren viser utviklingen for råoljeutvinningen (grønne søyler) på britisk sektor (sort linje; råoljeutvinningen glattet over 12 måneder). Utviklingen i oljeprisen er vist i samme diagram.

Når jeg utarbeidet prognosene mine presentert i dette innlegget så la jeg til grunn historikk og en konservativ metode. Etter nå å ha studert dataene for de enkelte felt i detalj så avtegnes et noe annet og foreløpig urovekkende bilde.

  • Fallratene har de seneste årene og med noe tidsforskyvning svingt harmonisk med oljeprisen. Korrelasjon er som kjent ikke kausalitet, men som diagrammene i dette innlegget viser så er det lett å få assosiasjoner i den retningen.
  • Etter en periode med høye oljepriser og bremsing av fallratene virker det nå som at geologi og fysikk igjen blir dominerende og vil akselerere fallratene for feltene på norsk sokkel.
  • Fallratene vil være en god ledende indikator på effekten fra tiltak for å øke oljeutvinningen da dette vil kunne vises gjennom en nedbremsing av fallratene og i noen tilfeller reversering av fallet og vekst i utvinningen.

Det er variasjoner mellom feltenes reservoaregenskaper og dreneringsstrategier så bildet er ikke entydig, men det er ikke til å komme fra at de historiske feltdataene avtegner et mønster. Om den siste tids utvikling summeres for alle feltene så synes den norske råoljeutvinningen å stå overfor en akselerasjon av fallraten der nye felt som bringes i utvinning vil dempe det totale fallet for norsk råoljeutvinning.

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Written by Rune Likvern

Tuesday, 20 November, 2012 at 00:03

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